Bangladesh
Fuel shock and Rohingya stagnation slightly erode Bangladesh's position.
PF Score
34
▼1Authority
44
Reach
27
Under construction
Fuel shock and Rohingya stagnation slightly erode Bangladesh's position. It remains above weaker crisis states like Benin and Mexico on internal coherence, but below Pakistan and Egypt because border management and refugee hosting consume state bandwidth without creating meaningful leverage abroad.
Energy import shock exposes thin crisis-management capacity.
Rohingya burden creates exposure, not external influence.
Tarique Rahman
Tarique Rahman leads the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and came to power in early 2025 following the interim administration of Muhammad Yunus.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is generating a second-order destabilization front across South and Southeast Asia through fuel scarcity.
WFP's tiered ration reduction marks a new phase of structural humanitarian contraction for the Rohingya crisis, with Bangladeshi officials explicitly predicting security deterioration based on documented 2023 precedent.
The US-Iran war's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has converted Bangladesh's structural energy vulnerability into an acute governance crisis within weeks.