Arakan Army
Hybrid
The Arakan Army's near-complete expulsion of Myanmar military forces from Rakhine State, including the seizure of Maungdaw, establishes it as the de facto governing authority in the state.
PF Score
31
Authority
43
Reach
22
Under construction
The Arakan Army's near-complete expulsion of Myanmar military forces from Rakhine State, including the seizure of Maungdaw, establishes it as the de facto governing authority in the state.
De facto Rakhine State control after systematic military expulsion.
Bangladesh dependency creates leverage but no projective instruments exist.
No allied relationships
Bangladesh's power position in the Rohingya crisis is structurally weakening: its diplomatic leverage depends on a repatriation framework that has no viable counterpart, its financial sustainability depends on donor attention that is shifting elsewhere, and its border security is now exposed to a non-state actor — the Arakan Army — that holds the territory but bears no international obligation.